I know long-range forecasts (more than 3 weeks out from a race) are crazy to go by, since so much can change, but what else are you gonna do when packing for a 2-week-long trip?
Looking at the current forecast, I'm hoping that either the overnight lows drop lower than currently expected (dipping below 50F would be nice) or the temps have a very slow rise during the time I'm running. We'll see when we're much closer.
Currently, I have multiple factors that are/may be coming into play with my long runs and, expectedly, with the marathon:
1) Temperature -- will the temperatures start or rise to too high a point for the multi-layered costume I have planned for my record attempt? If so, I'll very likely bail on the attempt, and then make the decision as to what pace I want to try in my usual singlet/shorts outfit: leisurely to soak it all in (quite tempting) or fast enough to get a BQ (as insurance on my sub-3 attempt in Chicago 3 weeks later).
2) Spiking HR -- Several of my long runs have been less than successful because my HR has spiked and stayed excessively elevated, whereupon I would drop down to a walk for as long as possible to drop my HR, and then try to restart near speed. Some of this may have been connected to overheating early, some of this may be connected to mild heart issues that are regularly being monitored by my doctor.
I'll be going to a cardiologist for a consult about a week after I return, to see if there are any actions that need to be taken (either by him, or by me adjusting my training routine and dropping my more intense paces to something that will keep my HR from spiking too high). Longer-term goals may need to adjust based on this consult -- I'll do whatever I need to, and hopefully that will accommodate continued marathoning. We'll see.
But first, eagerly awaiting wheels up.
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