The Elephant in the Room

While I had considered writing a brief post about this niggling pain in my left knee during my first, say, 2-3 minutes of running lately, my thoughts keep veering towards the elephant in the room that everyone is thinking, talking, and -- dare I say -- panicking about: COVID-19.

There are so many conflicting thoughts and emotions, it's hard to get them down in any logical order. Hopefully what I have to say winds up being coherent.

As I've posted elsewhere, I think people are needlessly panicking about this virus. Consumers are hoarding various items (soap, hand sanitizer, bleach, and for some reason toilet paper) from supermarket shelves. Retailers are gouging their customers (see the reports about what's happening with 3rd party sellers on Amazon's site -- there's only so much Amazon can do at one time). Wall Street is spiraling downward. (Granted, some of that today may be related to Russia and Saudi in their oil "war," but still...) People need to get a grip.

That said, though, there is definitely some legitimate concern. While it appears to be true that the overwhelming majority of people either will not contract this virus or will not suffer anything but the mildest of symptoms, there is a very small percentage (still not truly known) who fall into the biggest risk categories where contracting this could result in serious complications with their underlying conditions or even death. I don't want to downplay that nor do anything to make that worse.

We see major metropolitan areas and large swaths of some countries being quarantined. See China and Italy. We see large-scale events being canceled all over the world. See Tokyo, Milan, Rome, and Jerusalem marathons, to name just a few that certainly get my attention. Now the latest cancellation, which doesn't have a direct impact on me but is a potential harbinger of things to come: the St. Patrick's Day Parade in Boston. Is this a precursor to cancelling the Boston Marathon? (And, watch, this year there will be ideal weather for the first time since before I starting getting into Boston.)

Sure, I've got lots of time and energy invested in training for Boston and for plenty of other marathons. This year I have 9 that I am registered for, with NYC in November being #50. The synchronicity of running my 50th marathon as a time-qualifier for NYC's 50th anniversary/50th running of the marathon is extremely special to me. And, yes, I have lots of money paid out in registration fees for all of these races, and a couple of non-refundable flights. It's not about the money -- that's a sunk cost I can afford and clearly was willing to pay. But I can't deny its sting.

So what is the right thing to do while the virus is still spreading? There's no guarantee that this warm late winter will continue without retreating to colder weather; no guarantee that even if it does that the virus will be slowed down considerably (even if that is fairly typical of such viruses).

I want to run the marathons I've registered for. So do the tens of thousands of fellow runners who have signed up for these races. (Almost all of the races I've signed up for are very large-capacity races; I generally prefer those over the smaller races for the on-course support from cheering crowds.) Can the expos be adjusted so that they are basically just a bib and t-shirt pick-up, with the rest of the expo fare (from the official merchandise sales and other merchants, to samples, to big-name speakers, etc.) canceled? Can the Race Directors figure out a way to satisfactorily *mail* the bibs and t-shirts to the entrants -- at as close to break-even cost as possible? (Is there even enough time to do so for some of the nearer-term races?) Can the starting corrals be adjusted in such a way to not have everyone packed so tightly together for a prolonged period of time before the race? (I think any RD would be hard-pressed to get that last one from a large amount of the runners. We all want to be up front of our corrals to be as far outside the middle of the pack as possible.) Are these sorts of measures sufficient to minimize risks? And then what of the crowds lining the course? How can you realistically keep strangers 1-2 meters apart from each other for the whole length of these courses? (I've heard some RDs suggest that measure.) And is that truly necessary?

My biggest fear (disappointment?) is that there are no really good answers. Even once the medical community and the government agencies have a better grasp on this virus, I'm not sure these are so easily resolved. Certainly not this year (given how long it takes to develop vaccines and other treatments). So, what to do? I'm unconcerned, personally, about contracting the virus (I'm very healthy and not immune-compromised), and I believe the odds of my even becoming a carrier are extremely remote (I spend relatively little time in the expos, which would be the likeliest space where I could come in contact with someone else with it). And even more remote that I could pass it on. (It helps being single and unattached with no dependents.) If I choose to cancel and the races still go on, I miss out on great experiences. If I go, I hear the judgment of so many people blaming callous, selfish people for insisting on these large events (marathons or otherwise) to continue unabated. I'm not one who is typically swayed by other people being judgmental, but this time I can't say it hasn't given me pause, at least.

So, for now, I sit. And wait for additional news. And for additional announcements from the relevant federal, state, and local agencies, and the respective Race Directors to see whether the races are even moving forward. It's still early enough where I don't need to make a decision yet, and things can still change (either for the better or the worse). I just hate being this self-conflicted and suspect many of the runners who will read this post will feel the same way.