My pace for February needs to be about 7:15/mile downhill/flat, and about 7:45 - 8:00/mile uphill on that 2.5% incline at miles 4-6. So far in my most recent training cycle, I've been running 8:00/mile flat and about 9:00/mile for miles 4-6 on a 3% incline.
Strategy is to confirm that I'm at an even effort between those two, and slowly nudge things up without raising my HR an excessive amount.
So far, it's working. Those two paces/inclines have been giving me the same effort/HR at about 130. This next week, I will see what cranking it up to 7:30/mile flat and 8:30/mile @ 3% for miles 4-6 gets me for HR. Hopefully I can stay in the low 130s.
Alas, a trip soon to NYC (no running at all) and FL (running only on flat) will put a brief crimp in the plan, but I shouldn't really lose much uphill fitness. I'll still have over 1 month to get things going properly. While I'd love to repeat my sub-3 at Mesa, that's not part of my planning as of now. I think Mesa may turn into my "A" race each year to give me a BQ (and possibly NYQ) time, allowing me to simply do pacing gigs of various stripes, etc. for my other races.
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