Before all of the Abbott World Marathon Majors were happening this season, my one result from this cycle was holding me in respectable stead, though I knew I would fall in the rankings once the fall's races got added into the rankings.
Currently, my best two races are Chicago (where I earned 3140 points with my 3:15:33 time) and now the New York City Marathon (where I earned 3050 points with my 3:24:45 time). While it's nice to be 80th in the U.S., internationally (the ranking that matters), I'm currently sitting at 174th.
For my age group, invites to the Age Championships go out to the Top 85. Alas, the people who are tied for 85th have a total of 6760 points. Assuming that no one increases the range of point totals for the Top 85 by raising that last place, that means that I would need to replace my New York City result with 3620 points.
The scoring schema can be found at https://www.worldmarathonmajors.com/rankings/how-it-works
In short, since 4000 points is the maximum that the age group winner can obtain (and, at that, only if they beat the "platinum" standard for the age group -- 2:34, in my case), I can only afford to lose 380 points compared to the platinum standard. At 20 points per minute, that mean 19 minutes. So, for me to guarantee an invite to the Age Championships in 2022, I would need to run a 2:53 or better.
Despite what my Garmin has been predicting for months -- saying that I can run a 2:46:25 based on the data it's seen -- I do not have that kind of performance in me. Not at this point. Maybe some day I can get to that, but I'm realistic enough to know that's not happening this year, even if it were a net-downhill course that I'll be running in Little Rock (which it most certainly won't be).
My best chance is to do as well as possible and hope that a certain number of people are invited and decline, and that Abbott continues down the list to fill out a full field of 85 in the age group. I don't know that they actually do that. If I get a 3:04:59, I would earn 3380 points and have a total of 6520 -- which is currently 117th. Actually cracking 3 hours would put me at a total of 6620 -- currently 103rd.
Well, we'll see what is in store for me in just a few days' time. Wish me luck! And even better luck next year. (Now to choose more wisely in which races I'll be doing to give me more opportunities to get into the Top 85, and in a new age group, for a 2023 invite.)
-----
Interesting update... after writing the above, I took a look at the list of domestic races to start figuring things out for next year. However, I have discovered a genuine possibility of *still* making it this year, dependent on my result from Little Rock. If I can manage a 3:04:00 or better there, then having one more comparable time in December would jump me up to the vicinity of the Top 85, as the standings look currently. Hmm... Now to make sure my head is in the right place to push through any difficulties in Little Rock in order to grab that good a result. Having this glimmer of hope in hand is actually a great stepping stone to getting that result!
No comments:
Post a Comment