Since Chicago 2023, I've figured that I would need a BQ-9:00 to be pretty well guaranteed to actually get into Boston 2025. I only have a BQ-3:29 at the moment. Some friends have pointed out that Easter Sunday is that same weekend, so there very well may be a decrease in the number of runners applying, and therefore have a more favorable cut-off time.
Possibly.
Recently, I saw a post with someone going through a fair bit of data to provide a prediction to what the cut-off will be for Boston. BQ prediction is 5:43 - 7:11 under BQ. Hmm... And he doesn't factor in Easter.
Still, I don't think my 3:29 buffer will be enough, regardless. I certainly want to make sure that I have more than 5:00 buffer. Especially since I have one more marathon this season where I will attempt a good BQ: at Erie in early September. My 75th marathon.
Why Erie? Aside from it being a flat, fast course, it is highly likely that it will be "double-dip" weekend, where I will not only be able to use a good time for Boston 2025, but will also be able to use it for Boston 2026. If I can get a good enough time to not have to worry the following season, that allows me more races where I can be a pacer (which aren't BQ times for me), or have other agendas at play (like Boston 2024 or Disney World 2023). And if I can be closer to BQ-9:00 rather than BQ-5:00, I will still be in good stead for 2026 if BAA decides to tighten up their qualifying standards again by 5 minutes. We won't know that until the beginning of the 2026 qualifying period, which will start this September.
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